New model maps likelihood of Ebola spillovers by location and month

Emerging Infectious Diseases

WRITER: BETH GAVRILLES, BETHGAV@UGA.EDU CONTACT: JOHN M. DRAKE, JDRAKE@UGA.EDU; ANDREW PARK, AWPARK@UGA.EDU; JP SCHMIDT, JPS@UGA.EDU

Ecologists at the Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases have developed a model that maps the likelihood of Ebola virus “spillovers”—when the virus jumps from its long-term host to humans or animals such as great apes—across Africa on a month-by-month basis.

Their findings, published recently in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, reveal seasonal and regional patterns that could help public health officials decide when and where to target Ebola disease surveillance most effectively.

The model predicts that the risk of a spillover in Central Africa, where most Ebola cases have occurred, remains relatively steady throughout the year. It also predicts that spillovers are possible in West and East Africa, with the level of risk varying depending on the season; in both areas, a spillover is most likely during transitions between dry and rainy periods.
An article related to this study can be view at The Odum School of Ecology website.

  • Schmidt J, Park AW, Kramer AM, Han BA, Alexander LW, Drake JM, et al. Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover. Emerg Infect Dis. 2017;23(3):415-422. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2303.160101