The spread of diseases among animals is often influenced by a combination of environmental conditions and the makeup of host populations. A recent study performed by CEID members Daniel C. Suh, Stacey L. Lance, and Andrew W. Park examined the transmission of ranavirus in amphibian communities to better understand how both abiotic factors, like temperature, and biotic factors, such as host species composition and abundance, work together to drive disease outbreaks. This research offers insights into how pathogens that affect multiple species spread through the environment, potentially shaping broader ecological impacts.
To explore these dynamics, the researchers developed a mathematical model that factored in host community structures, population sizes, and environmental persistence of ranavirus. They collected data from amphibian populations in South Carolina wetlands, measuring viral loads and estimating how long the virus could survive in different temperature conditions. This approach allowed them to examine how both environmental and host-related variables independently and together influenced transmission risk.
The results showed that cooler temperatures, high host density, and communities dominated by species with high competence (the ability to transmit the pathogen) significantly increased the chances of ranavirus outbreaks. The virus was more persistent in cooler water, allowing for higher transmission rates, especially in areas with an abundance of susceptible hosts.
Find the study here.